UMA ANÁLISE EMPÍRICA PARA A ESTRUTURA A TERMO DA TAXA DE JUROS BRASILEIRA: USANDO O ALGORITMO DO FILTRO DE KALMAN PARA ESTIMAR OS MODELOS DE VASICEK E COX, INGERSOLL E ROSS / AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE BRAZILIAN TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: USING THE KALMAN FILTER ALGORITHM TO ESTIMATE THE VASICEK AND COX, INGERSOLL AND ROSS MODELS

AUTOR(ES)

MARCIO EDUARDO MATTA DE ANDRADE PRADO

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2004

RESUMO

The importance of the term structure of interest rates is hardly exaggerated. The term structure succinctly summarizes an enormous quantity of information about the actual state and about the future expectations of/ for the economy of a country. Within this work, using Kalman filter estimation techniques, we estimate, with Brazilian data, four different models of the term structure, all particular cases of the affine model studied by Duffie and Kan (1996). We analyze the parameter estimates relating it to the historical behavior of Brazilian data during the sample period. We compare the models among them, choosing the one most successful in fitting the data. Our results support a previous result regarding the non-validity of the expectation hypotheses in the Brazilian term structure.

ASSUNTO(S)

kalman filter term structure estrutura a termo filtro de kalman interest rates taxa de juros

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