Um modelo multiescalas de autômatos celulares para pandemia da dengue / A multiscale cellular automata model for the pandemic of Dengue

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

The dramatic resurgence and emergence of epidemic dengue and dengue hemorragic fever in the last two decades neatly define a global pandemic. The dispersion of dengue viruses combines local infections of humans bited by infective mosquitoes inside a city with long-range transmissions to non-infective vectors that feed the blood of infected people arriving from other urban areas. In the present work a cellular automata model for dengue epidemic is proposed and investigated through large-scale computer simulations. The model takes into account the main features concerning the population dynamics of mosquitoes and humans and the disease transmission cycle. Furthermore, the model is defined on a scale-free network in which each node is a square lattice in order to properly describe the environment as urban centers interconnected through a national transportation system. A nonzero epidemic threshold is found and it is approached with a power law behavior by the density of infected individuals, as observed in the small-world network of Watts and Strogatz. Also, it is studied the importance of three parameters for the dengue spreading: the diffusivity of the mosquitoes, the probability of a mosquito bites humans, and the travel s probability of people between two interconnected cities. Finally, maps of infected individuals are obtained in order to caracterise the epidemic spreading.

ASSUNTO(S)

scale-free networks epidemic dengue dengue epidemias redes livres de escalas fisica da materia condensada

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