Estimativa do prêmio pelo risco país com a aplicação do modelo AEG / Brazilian country risk premium estimation applying the AEG valuation model




The increasing economic integration and capital mobility among countries lead investors to be more exposed to external risks. That grants relevance to the discussion on how to consider, in the cost of equitys estimation, premiums for additional risks of businesses performed in emergent markets. The existence of an additional risk in these markets is relatively clear, what is demonstrated by higher volatilities that the majority of emergent stock markets presents if compared to mature markets. Nevertheless, the existence of a risk premium is less obvious and its empirical observation, applying historical data, usually doesnt produce any conclusive result. Within this framework, the present research approaches the country risk premium in the Brazilian stock market, introducing the most usual means to estimate it and discussing about the potential elimination of the country risk through investment diversification. The greatest contribution of this research is the application of the Abnormal Earnings Growth Model (AEG) to estimate the country risk premium. AEG makes viable the inference of the cost of equity implied in future earnings expectations, published by financial institutions through specialized media. The country risk premium was, then, estimated through the difference between the implied cost of equity of the main Brazilian public companies and the implied cost of equity of a comparable north-American group of companies, both calculated using the AEG. Was perceived a cost of equity higher in 2,09% (209 basis points) for the Brazilian companies, what was shown statistically significant. This result proofs the existence of a country risk premium for the Brazilian market, indicating that there are still some barriers to the international diversification of domestic risks. Additionally, this result is very close to the default risk premium of the Brazilian government bonds, which validates its vast usage as a proxy of the country risk premium applied for the Brazilian stock market.


valuation investimentos estrangeiros mercado financeiro administração de portfólio earnings international investments stock market portfolio selection análise do valor

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