Elasticidades de curto e longo prazos da demanda por Ãlcool hidratado no Brasil

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

Since March 2003, with the launch of flex fuel cars, consumption of hydrated alcohol again grows strongly in Brazil. The option of the consumer choice, holder of this technology, which allows the use of hydrated alcohol, gasoline or any mixture of proportion between the two in a single tank of fuel, leads to take as main variable the price of fuels (hydrated alcohol and C gasoline) adjusted for motor efficiency.Thus the aim of this dissertation is to analyze the evolution of hydrated alcohol demand under national from an economic model which relates consumption and price of alcohol and gasoline and income. It is also intended to evaluate the degree of substitution between alcohol and gasoline, especially after the beginning of bi-fuel cars, filling the lack of studies about elasticity of fuel alcohol. In order to achieve the objective described above it will be estimated the demand function for hydrated alcohol in Brazil and its price elasticity, income and price compared with gasoline for the post-liberalization of prices, from July 2001 to October 2008, using the co-integration method and the error correction model.The results obtained point out that in short term the demand for hydrated alcohol is inelastic to changes in price, once an increase of 1% in this variable turns out in a decrease about 0,75% in alcohol consumption. In long term a higher price elasticity was obtained (-0,93), as expected. It was also estimated the coefficient of a binary variable inclination in association with alcohol priceÂs, included in the model with objective of capturing the impacts of flex fuel entry on the curve of alcohol demand. This binary variable presented a coefficient about -0,26. This means that there was a change in price-elasticity of demand for alcohol, which became more elastic, moving from -0,93 to -1,19. Concerning the income elasticity of demand, the consumption of fuel alcohol is elastic to changes in real income, in both short and long term. On the other hand, the result of alcohol price elasticity compared with gasoline shows that both fuels are imperfect substitutes in short term (0,87) and more than perfect in long term (1,38). Furthermore, the error correction model indicated that the alcohol consumption fits into its long term balance with about 54% of the adjustment taking place in the first period

ASSUNTO(S)

error correction model programa nacional do Ãlcool(brasil) elasticidade oferta e procura demand for hydrated alcohol Ãlcool como combustÃvel flex fuel cars elasticity motores a Ãlcool energetic politics co-integration analysis metodos quantitativos em economia

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