CHOICE OF A FORECASTING DEMAND MODEL FOR NEWSPAPERS AT NEWSTANDS POINTS / DETERMINAÇÃO DE UM MODELO DE PREVISÃO DE DEMANDA POR JORNAIS EM PONTOS DE VENDA / DETERMINACIÓN DE UN MODELO DE PREVISIÓN DE DEMANDA DE PERIÓDICOS EN LOS PUNTOS DE VENTA

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

1999

RESUMO

This report has analyzed the issue of distributing the newspaper A Gazeta to sales stands. As a first step, a research was done on circulation within the areas of Distribution Systems and Demanding Forecast Methods. Besides, a study on logistic grounds was carried out about the current system of distribution and demanding forecast by S/A A Gazeta, which produces the newspaper subject of this study. Through the analysis of a series on historical data of the newspaper net sales at a specific sale stand, a pattern was developed, which enables a more precise forecast of the newspaper daily demands at these stand. Series Temporais by Box &Jenkins applied to the software SPSS, version 8.0, was used to determine the desired pattern. Some patterns were found which match to the solution of the problem. Then, an analysis on the result of the two best patterns was made. Since the pattern was agreed to be the ideal one, an ARIMA (1,0,1) (1,1,1)7, it will be possible to improve the newspaper distribution process to the sales stands,lessening the amount of stuck newspapers at each stand, as well as, to meet the demands due to a more precise distribution to the sales stands in terms of quantity.

ASSUNTO(S)

forecasting demanda logiastica logistica logistic demand previsao

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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