Characterization and estimation of occurrence of heat waves with impact on broiler mortality / Caracterização e previsão de ondas de calor com impacto na mortalidade de frangos de corte

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

As broiler production increases in Brazil it appears the need of optimizing production system mainly due to the market competitiveness, and technological resources application are required for reducing losses. Productive loss decurrently from heat wave (HW) incidence is quite common in broiler rearing under tropical conditions, and the solution for this is a rather complex problem. The early forecast of these climate events with impact on animal mortality may allow losses reduction. Data base on animal production and meteorology may enclose useful pattern for broiler mortality prediction, and it can be possible to extract them by techniques such as Data Mining. This research had the general objective of predicting broiler chicken mortality with a minimum period of 24 hours prior to heat wave exposure. The specific objectives were: 1) To characterize HW with impact on broiler mortality; 2) To generate forecast models applied to decision making systems during the broiler productive process, estimating the high mortality occurrence due to HW exposure; 3) To indicate mitigation actions to reduce HW impact on broiler chicken production. The HW with impact on broiler mortality presented characteristics that depend on the housing characteristics as well as on the age of the bird. The minimum concomitant climatic condition for HW affecting broiler production reared on housing without acclimatization was: maximum daily environmental temperature >32º C; average daily temperatures >24º C; average temperature and humidity index (THI) >23º C; and average wind speed _ 1.4 m s-1. For housing with the minimum acclimatization equipments mortality occurred in a distinct way for birds with distinct ages, and there was not mortality by HW exposure for birds up to 31 days old. For birds with age different from that, the climate condition for starting the high mortality incidence was distinct such as: between 31 and 40 days old: Maximum THI >30.6 ºC and maximum environmental temperature above 34.4 ºC; between 41 days old and laughter age: maximum THI >30.6 ºC; maximum ambient temperature >34.4º C; minimum THI _ 15.5 ºC; time that the maximum ambient temperature was found >15h00min. The mean HW magnitude with impact in broiler 31 days old and characterized by THI degrees hour accumulated (THIdha) >24ºC, was of 367 ºC accumulated during the day. The forecast within 48 hours (91.12% accuracy and 0.66 precision for the class High Mortality) and 24 hours (97.2% accuracy of the model, and 0.93 precision for the class High Mortality) of minimum forecast allows the start of mitigation actions for reducing broiler mortality. Days during HW present the worst thermal conditions, with lower air relative humidity during peak of heat during the afternoon; that allows the adoption of mitigation strategies by using fans and evaporative cooling starting between 09h00min and 10h00min up to 20h00min. It was possible to predict high broiler mortality using meteorological data forecast within 24 and 48 hours, and this may help early decision making to avoid economical losses

ASSUNTO(S)

meta-analises heat wave broiler chicken mortality meta-analysis frango de corte frango de corte - mortalidade mineração de dados (computação) frango de corte - fatores climaticos data mining

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