Análise de dimensionamento estocástico e determinístico de sistemas fotovoltaicos isolados / Stochastic and deterministic sizing analysis of stand-alone photovoltaic systems

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2006

RESUMO

This paper presents the photovoltaic systems modeling (photovoltaic generators and batteries) and a new methodology for the sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic systems using a stochastic method, comparing it to the existing deterministic methods. Softwares were developed for the stochastic and deterministic sizings, the probabilistic one being composed of four parts. The first part involves the data synthetic generation of hourly solar irradiance from monthly average daily data; the second part corresponds to the estimate of the Beta probability density function for the estimation of the output average power of photovoltaic modules. The third part corresponds to the calculation of the system reliability, that is to say, the Loss of Power Supply Probability (LPSP), and the fourth, to the calculation of the number of modules and batteries that make the system more economically viable, based on the chosen reliability and simulation. The standard chosen for the working up of the deterministic sizing software was that of Sandia (Sandia National Laboratories), because it is the most widespread nowadays, including that it is the one adopted by Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais. For the stochastic sizing, the European standard (Universal Technical Standard for Solar Home Systems) was also analysed. Database containing technical information on modules and batteries was developed. By means of the simulations and sizing analysis, it was proved that the optimized performance of the whole photovoltaic system is closely related to its sizing. The comparison between the stochastic and deterministic methodologies proved that the proposed probabilistic method presents innumerable advantages when compared to the other ones analysed. One concludes that the stochastic method is the most indicated for sizing a stand-alone photovoltaic system, as long as there is availability of metereologic data and load, this sizing being closer to real and more reliable.

ASSUNTO(S)

sizing analysis energizacao rural computer programme photovoltaic systems sistemas voltaicos programa computacional dimensionamento

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