A solvÃncia intertemporal da dÃvida interna brasileira: 1995-2005

AUTOR(ES)

Daniel Pereira da Silva

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2006

RESUMO

Over the past few decades, concerns over the magnitude and path of Brazilian public debt have raised countless analyses and caused constant monitoring of debt evolution. It is widely known it may have great consequences on the countryÂs growth and vulnerability to shocks as well as on the financing costs imposed to society. This work examines the long-run solvency of Brazilian public debt, based on the cointegration analysis between government revenues and outlays. According to data collected from January 1995 to December 2005, revenues (excluding seignoriage) and outlays (interest payments included) are cointegrated. This means that, although they take different paths in the short run, there is a long-run equilibrium relation tying both elements together ), which assures public debt intertemporal solvency. Additional tests using primary and nominal results series corroborate the same conclusions

ASSUNTO(S)

co-integration receita e despesa do governo co-integraÃÃo intertemporal solvency economia monetaria e fiscal dÃvida pÃblica public debt solvÃncia intertemporal

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