Spot Price Models
Mostrando 1-8 de 8 artigos, teses e dissertações.
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1. Using Common Features to Understand the Behavior of Metal-Commodity Prices and Forecast them at Different Horizons
The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relative
Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV. Publicado em: 03/01/2013
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2. ESTIMATION OF PETROLEUM FUTURE CONTRACTS USING THE KALMAN FILTER METHOD / ESTIMATIVA DE PREÇOS DE CONTRATOS FUTUROS SOBRE PETRÓLEO UTILIZANDO O MÉTODO DO FILTRO DE KALMAN
The Future Market is becoming increasingly important in the global scenario of Corporate Finance. The main interest in this segment of finance is the need of being protected against the volatility of financial markets. Accordingly, one of the most traded commodity is oil. Because of difficulty in determine the value of future contracts on oil barrel, many mo
Publicado em: 2009
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3. PrevisÃo de demanda, preÃo e anÃlise de poder de mercado no setor de energia elÃtrica
This thesis intends to develop studies applied to the Brazilian electrical sector - SEB. Initially, there was done a general review of the sector, concerning his main agents and institutions. In a first study, there were obtained forecasting for the demand of electrical energy in the Northeast Brazilian region, over the 2004-2010 period. These forecasting we
Publicado em: 2005
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4. SPOT PRICE REGULATION, INVESTMENT ATTRACTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE BRAZILIAN ELECTRICAL ENERGY MARKET / FORMAÇÃO DO PREÇO, ATRAÇÃO DE INVESTIMENTOS E GERENCIAMENTO DE RISCO NO MERCADO BRASILEIRO DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA
O mercado brasileiro de energia elétrica ainda não encontrou um modelo de mercado e de formação de preço que garanta a expansão auto-sustentada da oferta. Investigando em detalhe o modelo atual de despacho da geração e formação do preço, demonstramos a sua pouca eficácia na atração de investimentos, e identificamos a causa dessa falha como send
Publicado em: 2004
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5. SPOT PRICE FORECASTING IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKET / PREVISÃO DO PREÇO SPOT NO MERCADO DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA
This thesis focuses on spot price forecasting and risk management in the Brazilian electricity industry. It is proposed a new methodology for the problem based on neuro- fuzzy systems and the dispatching and planning operation programs. The main advantage of the approach is to be able to get more informative spot price distributions than using the operation
Publicado em: 2003
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6. MODELOS LINEARES E NÃO LINEARES NA MODELAGEM DO PREÇO SPOT DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA DO BRASIL / USING LINEAR AND NON-LINEAR APPROACHES TO MODEL THE BRAZILIAN ELECTRICITY SPOT PRICE SERIES
In this dissertation, modeling strategies are presented involving linear and non-linear time series models to model the spot price of Brazil`s electrical energy market. It has been used, among the linear models, the modeling approach of Box, Jenkins and Reinsel (1994) i.e., ARIMA(p,d,q) models, and dynamic regression. Among the non-linear ones, the chosen mo
Publicado em: 2003
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7. STRUCTURAL MODELLING APPLIED TO FORECAST THE SPOT PRICE OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY / MODELAGEM ESTRUTURAL APLICADA A PREVISÃO DO PREÇO SPOT DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA DO BRASIL
Nesta tese, apresentam-se estratégias de modelagem envolvendo modelos estruturais para a previsão do preço spot de energia elétrica do subsistema do Sudeste-Brasil. Foi utilizada a modelagem proposta por Harvey (1989), que extrai componentes não observáveis da série. Foram elaborados três modelos. No primeiro, utilizou-se somente o histórico da sér
Publicado em: 2003
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8. Influencia do custo do deficit de energia nos preços spot de energia eletrica no Brasil
This work tries to show how energy deficit costs affect spot prices in Brazil. It presents: evaluation methodologies for deficit social cost per unit of non supplied energy; simulation results using price models, where energy deficit costs values were modified to verify the effect in prices; sensitivity studies in prices caused by increases in past inflows t
Publicado em: 2002