Influencia do custo do deficit de energia nos preços spot de energia eletrica no Brasil

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2002

RESUMO

This work tries to show how energy deficit costs affect spot prices in Brazil. It presents: evaluation methodologies for deficit social cost per unit of non supplied energy; simulation results using price models, where energy deficit costs values were modified to verify the effect in prices; sensitivity studies in prices caused by increases in past inflows to reservoirs and in discount rate; studies realized by institutions in Brazilian electric sector about energy deficit costs effect in prices and in energy deficit risks; historical data about reliability criteria; studies about energy deficit costs and power capacity deficit costs used in Brazil and other countries. 1t conc1udes that: increases in energy deficit costs have greater effect in spot prices increases than in energy deficit reductions; its important, in deficit situations, to fix a price cap; the way price models consider past inflows to reservoirs causes distortions in price signaling; when discount tax increases total deficit cost decreases; it is more adequate to use a energy deficit cost curve considering various costs for various deficit percentages instead of considering only one cost for any deficit percentage; spot price is not enough to signal future possibility of deficit occurrence and to force new investments; deficit costs do not seem to be adequate as a reference to calculate spot prices. It comments that: its necessary to know deficit risks and deficit costs that are implied in recent criteria in Brazil that adopts an electric energy supply insurance curve; deficit cost estimates have limitations but they must be constant1y updated because they are important to evaluate expansion and operation plans and it is important to know these costs by region, economic sector and for some individual consumers; its necessary to study factors that cause differences between operation planning criteria and expansion planning criteria and to determine if its necessary to minimize these differences; deficit risks indicators, future market prices and last instance government actions are necessary for supply guaranty; its important to study if mechanisms for bilateral markets transparence are necessary; movable energy generator alternatives from other countries must be considered in expansion and operation planning when deficit risks occurs; its important to evaluate the possibility of using non linear optimization models instead of using dynamic programming in system operation and system expansion planning models

ASSUNTO(S)

planejamento custo energia eletrica

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