Macroeconomic Volatility
Mostrando 1-12 de 14 artigos, teses e dissertações.
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1. Effects of overvaluation and exchange rate volatility over industrial investment: empirical evidence and economic policy proposals for Brazil
The present article aims to analyze the recent behavior of real exchange rate in Brazil and its effects over investment per worker in Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. Preliminary estimates presented in the article shows an over-valuation of 48% of real exchange rate in Brazil. The reaction between the level (and volatility) of real exchange r
Brazil. J. Polit. Econ.. Publicado em: 2014-09
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2. Fundos soberanos de riqueza de recursos naturais e volatilidade cambial.
The goal of this paper is to empirically verify what the impact of the Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) on the economic stability is. The natural resource SWFs have been a mechanism deployed by economies rich in natural resources to manage the incomes that come from the exploitation of such resources, aiming at objectives that range from savings for future gene
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 22/12/2011
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3. Choques monetários e tecnológicos e as flutuações cíclicas na economia brasileira / Monetary and technological shocks and cyclical fluctuations in the Brazilian economy
Models of real business cycles emphasize real shocks as a way to explain the behavior of the economic cycle; however, in economies like Brazil, where recent economic crises have originated in monetary instability, the nominal shocks can have great importance in explaining economic fluctuations. In this context, this study sought to examine the relevance of t
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 12/04/2011
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4. Altos dividend yelds como estratÃgia para composiÃÃo de carteiras de investimentos / Yelds high dividends as a strategy to portfolios of investments
This study sought to determine whether the use of the indicator fundamentalist dividend yield as a criterion for yield as a criterion for selection of assets is an effective strategy to achieve that maximization of the return on an investment. For this, we used the technique of formation of portfolios, creating the target portfolio of the research, consistin
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 02/02/2011
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5. Exchange rate regulation, the behavior of exchange rates, and macroeconomic stability in Brazil
In the last two decades an entirely new set of rules governing the foreign exchange transactions was established in Brazil, substituting for the framework inherited from the 1930s. Foreign exchange controls were dismantled and a floating exchange rate regime replaced different forms of peg. In this paper we argue that although successful by comparison to pre
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy. Publicado em: 2011-12
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6. The behavior of temporary sales in a macroeconomic context
We investigate temporary sales using a very detailed data set for 13 years of retail prices in the Brazilian economy, with price quotes collected every 10-days. We find strong evidence of co-movement between frequency and size of sales and the macroeconomic varibles. The common belief in the literature that sales do not react to changes in macroeconomic vari
Publicado em: 21/10/2009
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7. Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals
This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family volatility models, particularly the DCC models in the form proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). The returns were duly corrected for a se
Publicado em: 26/01/2009
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8. A piramide e a esfinge : estudo sobre a hierarquia das divisas, a integração financeira de paises perifericos e a volatilidade de cambio e juros / The Pyramid and the Sphinx : a study on currency hierarchy, financial integration of peripheral countries and the volatility of exchange
This dissertation consists of a theoretical analysis and an empirical study on the effects of international financial integration on the volatility of macroeconomic variables, such as exchange rates and interest rates in peripheral countries. In the proposed theoretical approach, which is developed in the first chapter, the analysis starts with a qualitative
Publicado em: 2008
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9. Financial systems stress testing: an application to Brazil / Testes de estresse em sistemas financeiros: uma aplicação ao Brasil
This dissertation reviews financial system stress-testing methodologies and describes a scenario analysis and macro stress testing applied to Brazil. The macroeconomic scenarios are modeled by a vector autoregressive and the stress testing by a random effects ordered probit panel. Data for Brazil over the time period from 11/2002 to 11/2007 is used to estima
Publicado em: 2008
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10. Volatilidade da conta financeira do balanço de pagamentos: os casos do Brasil, México, Argentina e Chile
The main purpose of this essay is to analyze the Financial Account movement of Brazilian, Mexican, Argentinean and Chilean Balance of Payments. The specific objective is to find which financial flows are most volatile during the administrative and flexible exchange rate periods. Moreover, the thesis intends to look for the inter relation between these flows
Publicado em: 2008
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11. Did ISI fail and is neoliberalism the answer for Latin America? Re-assessing common wisdom regarding economic policies in the region
The second phase of Import Substituting Industrialization, commonly known as ISI2, involved the move in Latin America to "heavy" industrialization, from around 1950-80. This period of economic history has been reviled on both the Left and the Right as being one of either heightened dependency or one demonstrating the clear failure of state intervention in th
Brazilian Journal of Political Economy. Publicado em: 2007-09
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12. ENSAIOS SOBRE POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA E FLUTUAÇÕES ECONÔMICAS NA PRESENÇA DE IMPERFEIÇÕES DE MERCADO / ESSAYS ON MONETARY POLICY AND BUSINESS CYCLES UNDER MARKET IMPERFECTIONS
This thesis consists of three essays on economic fluctuations and monetary policy issues, which are investigated within New- Keynesian monetary general equilibrium models. The first essay analyzes the properties of optimal disinflation policies, seeking to identify conditions under which: (i) the optimal disinflationary path involves significant output losse
Publicado em: 2007