Choques monetários e tecnológicos e as flutuações cíclicas na economia brasileira / Monetary and technological shocks and cyclical fluctuations in the Brazilian economy

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

12/04/2011

RESUMO

Models of real business cycles emphasize real shocks as a way to explain the behavior of the economic cycle; however, in economies like Brazil, where recent economic crises have originated in monetary instability, the nominal shocks can have great importance in explaining economic fluctuations. In this context, this study sought to examine the relevance of technological and monetary shocks on business cycles in the Brazilian economy between 1980 and 2009 and the sub-period between 1995 and 2009. To introduce the factors rated in real business cycle models, a model was used which considers that the currency and its maintenance generates utility for economic agents, the model money-in-the-utility function (MIU). Various artificial economies were simulated, which allowed the identification of the shape and pattern of business cycles and how they respond to technological and monetary shocks. For this purpose, the artificial economy was named standard economy with the introduction of technology shocks only, and monetary economy, the economy with the introduction of technological and monetary shocks. When the standard economy was simulated, the results were adherent to the stylized facts of the Brazilian economy in both periods analyzed, however, only for real macroeconomic variables, which corroborated the necessity of including monetary shocks. The simulation of the monetary economy triggered significant adjustments in the standard deviation and correlation of real money balances and the rate of inflation, so that their cyclical properties approached those found by the stylized facts, but did not cause significant effects on the real interest rate and the nominal interest rate in both time horizons analyzed. In addition, in order to check the consistency of nominal shocks, a monetary economy was simulated with technological shocks associated with different levels of monetary shocks, through which were obtained results that indicate important corrections in the dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates, with the volatility of nominal interest rates rising, however, still significantly lower than those characteristic of the Brazilian economy, the same happened with the real interest rate. However, the simulations of the monetary economy were slightly more adherent to the characteristic data of the Brazilian economy when we analyzed the sub-period between 1995 and 2009. This was due to the fact that nominal variables showing the best adjustment and the real variables respond more significantly to the monetary shock, which was not observed in simulations of the cash economy for the period between 1980 and 2009. These results indicated that the real variables tend to be more sensitive to unanticipated changes in nominal aggregates in periods of macroeconomic stability. Thus, the results provided findings that the introduction of monetary shocks was important in explaining business cycles in the Brazilian economy, although the effect on the volatility of real variables was small. Thus, when considering the technological and monetary shocks as part of the economic structure, we could better identify the effects of economic dynamics, which were previously attributed only to technological shocks, but are in fact generated by other types of disturbance.

ASSUNTO(S)

ciclos de negócios choques monetários choques tecnológicos metodos quantitativos em economia business cycles monetary shocks technological shocks

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

Documentos Relacionados