Study of predictive factors of severity and death due to chickenpox in residents of Greater Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, 2003 / Estudo de fatores preditores de gravidade e óbito por varicela em residentes da região metropolitana da grande São Paulo (SP), 2003

AUTOR(ES)

Alessandra Cristina Guedes Pellini

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2006

RESUMO

Introduction: Chickenpox is a benign exanthematous disease of childhood, whose primary infection is caused by the Varicella-zoster virus. In the State of São Paulo, in 2003, 58,972 chickenpox cases were notified following outbreaks, configuring a hyperendemic year for the disease. From a total of 60 deaths in the whole State, 47 happened in children up to 4 years old. More than half of the deaths occurred in residents of the Greater São Paulo Metropolitan Area. Objectives: To describe and characterize those individuals residents in the Greater São Paulo Metropolitan Area who developed chickenpox severity or death during the year 2003, and to study the predictive factors of these events. Method: A descriptive study was performed, analyzing clinical and social-demographic variables, personal and epidemiological records of the chickenpox cases. Besides, an exploratory analysis of the redictive factors of severity and death by the disease was made. Association between exposures of interest and chickenpox severity or death was investigated by unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio estimation, with 95% confidence intervals, using unconditional logistic regression. Results: The following variables keep an independent association with severity and death for chickenpox: development of rare, pulmonary, hemorrhagic and neurological complications. The need of surgery during the chickenpox hospitalization was an independent predictive factor for severity only. The mortality rate was 36 times greater in the age group from 0 to 14 years old than in the adult age group, and 5 times greater in children up to 1 year old than in the age group ranging from 0 to 14 years old. Conclusion: The comprehensive knowledge of the chickenpox epidemiology, its complications and risk factors for severity and death is extremely important to base the implementation of prevention and control strategies for groups at greater risk of infection.

ASSUNTO(S)

mortality risk factors fatores de risco varicela chickenpox mortalidade

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