Sistema de previsão imediata da precipitação: o hydrotrack / A rainfall nowcasting system: the hydrotrack

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

The knowledge of convective system evolution is of fundamental importance for understanding weather and climate, particularly in the tropics, and it is essential to improve forecasting of these systems to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather damage. The identification of predictor parameters of the evolution of convective system, based on its previous evolution, could give valuable contribution to nowcasting schemes. The objective of this work was to develop a nowcasting method based on the ForTraCC, forecasting and tracking of cloud cluster and the Hydro-Estimator, a methodology for precipitation estimate from satellite images. Furthermore, with the results from the tracking of the precipitation structures were possible to study: storm propagation and its relationship with the mean wind field, thermodynamics parameters and the parameterization of convective system displacements. The basic data for this analysis was the GOES image each thirty minutes and weather data analysis from Eta. To conduct the development of this nowcasting model was necessary to know the statistical behavior of the precipitation structures during the lifecycle. We intend to develop the nowcasting precipitation model based in the precipitation field extrapolation in time and space using the Hydro-estimator and the ForTraCC techniques. This study was also useful to understand the movement of the rainfall cells. Nowcasting techniques, which are not as computationally intensive, have a very important role to play in the time frame between 0 to 6 hours, where numerical model does not have good skill. The HydroTrack presented a good performance related to system area and rain rate prediction for all methods. With regards to system displacement prediction the conservative method offered a good skill to small systems, whereas for larger systems was better foreseen to maximum cross correlation.

ASSUNTO(S)

convectives systems hydro-estimator fortracc fortracc precipitação propagação propagation precipitation sistemas convectivos hydro-estimator

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