Prospective analysis of the pattern of expansion of the sector sucroenergético Brazil: an application of probabilistic models with data-georeferenciated / Análise prospectiva do padrão de expansão do setor sucroenergético brasileiro: uma aplicação de modelos probabilísticos com dados georeferenciados

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

With expectations of a growing international market for biofuels, where Brazil would be a natural leader in the ethanol, several questions arise regarding the sustainability of Brazilian ethanol expansion: what would be the environmental, social and economic inpacts of sugarcane expansion in a scenario of significant ethanol exports? What regions would be more affected? Should this expansion be interpreted as a threat to areas of significant environmental interest? Are the regions with greater environmental impacts the same regions where social and economic impacts are most intense? This study describes the evolution of the Brazilian sugarcane sector; identifies the most dynamic regions for further sugarcane expansion and the main factors that determine the mills location. Besides the historical description, the analysis relies on elements of the Neoclassical and New Institutional Economics Theory. Based on econometric analysis, the study develops a scenario that simulates the elimination of US ethanol main trade barriers. The results are compared to the base period. The study has found that the main factors determining mills location are the net return of sugarcane activity, net return of the other crops (as opportunity costs), transportation costs of the sugarcane products, weather suitability, land availability, soil and relief conditions (suitable for mechanization) and positive and negative externalities of the other mills. The states of São Paulo, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul are identified as the most dynamic states for sugar cane production. The states of Mato Grosso and Tocantins were also included in the simulations due to their growing importance reflected in the latest expectations on the progress of the agricultural frontier in Brazil. The scenario simulation found that sugarcane production would increase by 171 million tons, which is converted on 13.8 billion liters of anhydrous ethanol (45% and 88% of the base period, respectively). The greater prices and quantities resulted in an increase of R$ 14.8 billion of the value of the ethanol production (101% of the base period). Harvested area increased by 2.16 million hectares (47% of the base period). The number of new jobs depends on the mechanization levels of sugarcane harvesting, and on the quality of jobs created. The result ranges between 48 thousand to 149 thousand new jobs. The indirect and induced effects were not taken into account, which may lead to greater impacts in the result. The regional analysis has shown that the expansion generates significant socioeconomic impacts that are well distributed, while environmental impacts are more concentrated on traditional sugarcane areas. The concentration of environmental impacts occurs because the areas of greater expansion are the ones that combine favorable conditions of profitability, climate and logistics, and, at the same, where land availability is already a major restriction. The dispersion of socioeconomic impacts is explained by the different and relatively lower levels of development of the new expansion areas. From this perspective, it is recommended that public and private sectors look for political strategies that enable greater access to the US market, since this access could help generate socioeconomic development, in line with the rational use of environmental resources.

ASSUNTO(S)

geografia agrária simulation Álcool como combustível industry sucroalcooleira sugar cane indústria sucroalcooleira geography agrarian alcohol as fuel cana-de-açúcar biofuels biocombustíveis simulação

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