Produção de cana-de-açúcar para obtenção de etanol hidratado no Rio Grande do Sul : uma análise utilizando dinâmica de sistemas

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2012

RESUMO

Brazilian use of sugar cane ethanol in its energy matrix has been gaining international recognition. With a growing fleet of flex fuel vehicles, Brazil has been building an each year greater demand for ethanol. Nevertheless, consumption levels throughout the country are not homogeneous. Far from sugar cane production centers and with one of the nations higher ethanol selling tax, state of Rio Grande do Sul is frequently pointed as the state that has the higher ethanol selling price in the country. As its price at fuel stations seldom reach a competitive price against gasoline, the demand of fuel ethanol in Rio Grande do Sul is also one of the lowest in the country, as the owners of flex-fuel vehicles rarely chose ethanol to fill their tanks. A new agricultural zoning act, published by Brazil Agriculture Ministry in 2009, included 182 Rio Grande do Sul counties as able to produce sugar cane for ethanol production. The counties listed on the zoning act can apply for official public policies, insurance and financing. Upon the publication of this zoning act a discussion began about the increasing of sugar cane and ethanol production in Rio Grande do Sul. For better understanding and analysis of sugar cane business in Rio Grande do Sul, this work purposes a system dynamics model, involving the relationship among the main variables that constitutes the fuel ethanol supply chain. Using VENSIM software, different arrangements for sugar cane productivity and fuel ethanol sales tax were simulated and different outputs for sugar cane area and ethanol production were obtained. The analysis of the results showed that considering actual productivity and state tax on ethanol fuel levels, the production of sugar cane in the state of Rio Grande do Sul is not sustainable. Model simulations yielded, even in the most positive scenario, considering productivity increase, tax reduction and gasoline price increase, unstable and swinging behavior for acreage increase.

ASSUNTO(S)

cadeia produtiva cadeia de suprimentos combustível cana de açúcar etanol

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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