Previsão de duração de nevoeiro no aeroporto internacional de São Paulo utilizando análise de sobrevivência / Forecast of duration of fogs international airport of São Paulo using survival analysis

AUTOR(ES)

Marcos Paulo Souza

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

In this work is developed a method to forecast of duration of fog for every month of the year to the International Airport of São Paulo using Analysis Survival. It was used time series several hours of the period of January of 1988 up to 31 of December of 2005. The characteristics climatological (1988-2003) typical of fogs in this region had been: 1) preferential forms in the May months the August and largest amount of hours with for occurs in June (551,3 h, that represents 20% of the monthly total of hours); 2) preferential form between the 20 HL and the 8 HL, verifying themselves only four fog cases that if had outside formed of this inteval, being two cases the 9 HL, a case the 16 HL and a case the 19 HL; 3) The peak hour with higher occurrence of fog occurred between the 5 HL and 6 HL; 4) Ir has greater probability of duration for the fogs that more early start, that month occur in of June, July, May and August, that they initiate with direction of wind lesser that 150 ° and next to 90°, that they initiate with speed of the lesser wind thar 8 KT and median od 5 KT, providing pressure greater than or equal to 1018 hPa median between 1018 and 1025 hPa, Td less than 16 ° C and median between 13°C and 16°C and Tw greater or equal to 17° C and median between 11 °C and 17°C. The model that better if adjusted to the data of fogs of the International Airport of São Paulo, by means of Statistics of Test (TRV) was the Model of Weibull and the best predictors to forecast the duration of the fog were the variables: months of the occurrence of fog (V1), hours of the start of the fog (V2), wind direction (V3), wind speed (V4), visibility (V5), Td (V7 and Tw (V8).

ASSUNTO(S)

meteorologia fog meteorologia forecast survival analysis nevoeiro previsão análise de sobrevivência

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