Padrões climáticos atuais e futuros de temperatura do ar na Região Sul do Brasil e seus impactos nos cultivos de pêssego e de nectarina em Santa Catarina / Current and future air temperature climatic patterns in the South Region of Brazil: the impacts on peach and nectarine production in Santa Catarina

Claudia Guimarães Camargo Campos

Over the years, climate changes and their direct impacts were observed in different parts of the globe. The present study considers the main air temperature patterns, including their extreme values, in Southern Brazil and assesses their impacts on peach and nectarine production. The analysis is based on daily air temperatures recorded at weather stations distributed throughout Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul States during the 1961-2008 period. Additionally, daily temperatures were projected through the use of the regional climate model HadRM3P (2071-2100) under two different scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions, namely A2 and B2. In both series (observed and projected), a standard climatologically period (1961-1990) was used as a reference. As a first step, detailed analysis of consistency on the daily temperature values of maximum, medium and minimum was carried out. Data analysis at decade, annual, seasonal and monthly levels indicated that regional temperature differences are very noticeable, marked by the longitudinal and latitudinal extension and especially by the highlands peculiarities present in the Southern Region. Over the last decade (2000-2008), a rise in the air temperature range due to the increase in maximum air temperatures was observed. Moreover, climate projections in Southern Brazil generated by the climate model HadRM3P (2071-2100) indicate a significant increase in mean air temperature, as well as for the extreme maximum and minimum temperatures, and most remarkably for the maximum air temperature. As expected, the A2 scenario presented a more significant warming in the annual, seasonal and monthly analysis, with an increase up to 5.8 degrees in air temperature during the spring. There were clear different patterns in the monthly air temperature increments generated by the scenarios A2 and B2, especially when the warming projected for the month of September is compared. The effect of this warming increment has significant impacts on peach and nectarine production. In fact, in the one hand, there is a positive impact due the decrease of frost risk. On the other hand, however, both scenarios (A2 and B2), present a clear reduction of chilling hours, which remain restricted to regions in higher locations. This pattern will forcefully lead to a reduction of areas suitable for planting peach and nectarine in the South Region of Brazil.

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