Modelos de ciclos reais de negócios com imposto e setor externo : o caso brasileiro

AUTOR(ES)

Fabiano Maia Pereira

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

The aim of this work is to analyses the impact of fiscal policies on Brazilian business cycles by using dynamic equilibrium models of a small open economy with government. In doing so, there are four ways of government finances its purchases by levying flat-rate: tax on consumption, tax on earnings from capital, tax on earnings from labor and investment tax credit. The models results, parameterized and calibrated for Brazilians case, are able to mimic a big volatility of consumption and investment regarding to outputs volatility and their procyclical movements. At the same time, the trade balance shows a superior volatility when compared with developed countries and a countercyclical movement. The existence of tax system is the responsible for those cited movements, and the taxes occurrences tend to amplify the impact and persistence of technological shocks. On the other hand, labor supply is not replicated in the model, a usual result in Brazilian works. Furthermore, this result is related to the data used, in others words, is associated to formal employment. In spite of this fail, we can find similar results of real Brazilian data when the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in labor supply is greater than USA data. To wrap up, the simulations related to tax systems impacts on social welfare indicate that the capitals yield tax is the one which has the major cost to society and this result must be taken into account in a tax reform.

ASSUNTO(S)

, pequena economia aberta economia equilíbrio geral computáve ciclos de negócios

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