Investment analysis of a thermal power plant: a deterministic and probabilistic assessment / AnÃlise de investimento de uma usina termelÃtrica : uma abordagem determinÃstica e probabiÃstica

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2005

RESUMO

Concerning the main changes which took place in the Brazilian electrical sector, there was an increase of competitiveness, especially in the field of energy production, where the new policy of buying and selling electricity occurs by means of auctions. This thesis has as an objective to demonstrate through deterministic and probabilistic studies the better levels for selling energy, in the long term and in the short term, linked with different parcels of contracting fuel. Taking into account the minimum price, which satisfies the conditions of financing capital from other institutions, as well as providing the investment to become feasible, within sceneries which are expected in order to provide expansion of electricity generation and load demand, the amount of energy production of a thermal power plant is then defined to be offered for biddings, within bilateral contracts that can better remunerate the entrepreneur. Regarding the environments of uncertainty and the risks of the energy market, sensibility studies of main variables have been realised and statistical indices have been worked out, which allow the investor to evaluate for different proper capital costs and various analysed alternatives, the one that better produces the expected return considering the rate of risk in which it is going to be submitted. Within the project investment risk analysis it is worked out the standard deviation, the variation coefficient, the probability of nonremunerating the investment and the percentile of 1%, 5% and 10% of return for the possible project cash flows, for each level of energy contracting and operational flexibility. For a better modality of contracting energy and for various levels of fuel contract it has been analysed the lowest energy tariffs considering 5% risk for a non remunerable investment, together with economical indices which are expected for the project. This model of investment analysis allows the analyser to observe the possibilities of gains in the short term market concerning the estimates of high or low prices in this ambient. In order to make it possible it has been considered plant dispatch and selling of flexible parcel of energy production in situations where prices are of favourable values; on the other hand, it has been taken into account the conditions of reduced price to negotiate energy acquisition, which is necessary for honouring the bilateral contracts that correspond to the non flexible parcel of the generated energy, avoiding in this way operational costs which are unnecessary to energy production

ASSUNTO(S)

economia anÃlise de investimento, termelÃtrica, preÃo de energia, anÃlises determinÃsticas e probabilÃsticas, risco investment analysis, thermal power plant, energy price, deterministic and probabilistic analysis, risk

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