Interação entre política fiscal e monetária, independência do Banco Central e competição eleitoral : uma abordagem de teoria dos jogos

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

Based in a model that considers the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy and the role of societys expectations about the price level we study the relevance of central bank independence and the electoral effects created by an opportunistic policymaker using the framework of Game Theory in settings of complete and asymmetric information. Under complete information, we show that when the central bank is independent the economy reaches lower price and product levels if compared to the case where the central bank is dependent. Moreover, in electoral periods an opportunistic government can generate lower product and higher prices than in non-electoral periods. We study the strategic set up in which society doesnt know for sure if the central bank is independent or not and conclude that in the former case society is better off knowing that central bank is independent. On the other hand, when the central bank is, in fact, dependent, society benefits form being less informed. Considering the possibility that the government (fiscal authority) can be of two types - competent or incompetent we show that a competent government is associated with higher product and lower prices than an incompetent one. We also study the asymmetric information case in which society is uninformed about the government competence and find that, when the government is competent, it is socially better to have an independent central bank while a dependent central bank is socially desirable in case of an incompetent government. Also exploring the two type variation, when the government can decide about the central bank independence, we find a Separating Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium in which a competent government is able to signal his type choosing an independent central bank and the incompetent type can also signal his type choosing a dependent central bank. Finally, we discuss the effect of reelection under asymmetric information about governments type considering an opportunistic politician in a two period model. When a Pooling Equilibrium happens and an incompetent government distorts his optimal policy choice to be reelected, then central bank independence is preferable to central bank dependence.

ASSUNTO(S)

política fiscal e monetária fiscal and monetary policy electoral competition competição eleitoral central bank independence independência do banco central economia

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

Documentos Relacionados