Integração entre os mercados de boi para o abate na Argentina e no Brasil / Market integration between the live cattle prices in Argentina and in Brazil

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2010

RESUMO

The main purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between live cattle prices in Brazil and in Argentina so that both companies and government could have more accurate measures on the effects of Argentinas evolution of production and internal/external trade on Brazilian market. In order to achieve this goal a Vector Autoregression with Error Correction Model - VEC was elaborated taking into account the following set of variables a) live cattle prices in Brazil and Argentina (USD/kg); b) Exchange rate Euro/Dollar; c) wholesale beef prices in the European Union (USD/kg). The results indicated that a shock in live cattle prices in Argentina has a very low impact on Brazilian prices. On the other hand, shock in Brazils live cattle price, although small, is positive and higher than that caused by Argentinas shocks on Brazils prices. After the two first months, a shock of 1% in Brazils cattle price would cause an increase of 0,25% in Argentinean prices, indicating that a rise in cattle prices in Brazil is passed on to export prices, which would enhance the demand for Argentinean beef in competitive markets. Shocks on wholesale beef prices in the EU have a negative influence on Brazils prices, which corroborates the hypothesis that a rise in EU beef prices are usually explained by a reduction in imports for reasons others than market forces. The opposite behavior happens in the case of Argentina.

ASSUNTO(S)

brazil agricultural market carnes e derivados mercado agrícola beef cattle abate bovinos de corte price. slaughtering international trade argentina argentina preço. brasil meat and related comércio internacional

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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