Gestão de estoques na cadeia de suprimentos de uma indústria do setor de perfumes e cosméticos : uma interpretação em função de "erros" na previsão de vendas

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2005

RESUMO

The objective of this dissertation is to demonstrate the stock cost in the supply chain, caused by sales forecast mistakes, considering delivery lead time, standard production batches and sales batches, demonstrating a business approach in keeping with expended reality of costs and its better control. In the short term, it is very difficult to demonstrate to an organization how the variation of sales forecasts can impact the business. One of the most important things that contribute to the company supply chain, which works under the concept of make to stock, is the sales forecast. The better the sales forecast accuracy is, the less impact it will have on the sales level and supply chain costs. On the other hand, if the variations are high, it may drastically jeopardize the chain results, creating three situations: Stock shortages, backlogs and stock overages. This situation, besides growing production costs, may jeopardize the cash flow and the business profitability. Hence, in this case, we have a big problem in the development of this research. This study will concern itself with the calculation of a good production master plan and its primary commodities sales plan, based on sales forecasts, actual methods used, including in the valuation of the standard batches of production and sales, opportunity costs and calculations, the financial investment in industry stock and in the supply chain (inbound). Recalculating the production and sales master plans, based on real demand, and according to the Winters suggested method of sales forecast, comparing the stock costs spent on the industry and supply, based in the actual method of sales forecast, and also in the Winters method. The costs in the chain will be analyzed, based on the sales forecast versus real demand, and versus the cost of sold goods. This study will also show a stock costs approach for outside companies and the rise in costs to suppliers and logistical managers, and the possibility of earnings and stocks costs reduction in the supply chain and in internal processes.

ASSUNTO(S)

logística empresarial engenharia de producao previsão de vendas controle de produção controle de estoque

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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