Fluxos de produção e consumo de milho no sul e sudeste do Brasil. / Production and consumption flows of corn in the south and southeast of Brazil.

AUTOR(ES)

Viviane Vuolo Risseto

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2001

RESUMO

This dissertation analyses the production and consumption flows of corn in the South and Southeast regions of Brazil, during the 1990-1998 period. The monthly corn consumption was estimated in each segment, identifying the states that have deficits and surpluses of the product. The patterns of seasonal price variations were also estimated. The corn consumption in the chicken meat, eggs, pork meat, cattle meat, cattle dairy and seeds segments was obtained with estimation procedures that required the application of technical coefficients. In order to evaluate those indices, 71 specialists and producers were surveyed. The monthly production data was obtained employing the CONAB estimated harvest seasonal patterns to the yearly IBGE production data. The seasonal price variations were estimated using a method proposed by Hoffman (1969), based on geometric moving averages. The results show that the chicken meat segment corn consumption grew 76% in the South and 51% in the Southeast, during the 90 s. On the other hand, in the eggs segment the corn consumption practically didn’t change during this period. For the pork meat segment, the consumption increase was 72% in the South and 63% in the Southeast. The increment for the cattle meat segment was 69% and 73%, respectively, for the South and Southeast regions. In the Brazilian South region as a whole, the corn consumption increased 63% in the period. In the Southeast, the growth was 42%. Respectively, the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Minas Gerais were the main drivers of this performance. The consumption for the other states didn’t change very much. The transportation and storage losses were 1,97 million of tons, 8,84% of total production. The highest surpluses were registered in Paraná, followed by Rio Grande do Sul and Minas Gerais. On the other side, the state of São Paulo displayed the largest production deficit. It wasn’t possible to estimate the corn consumption in the small and subsistence farms of the regions. The results suggest that the estimated deficits are proxies for the least amount of corn imported from other states. On the other hand, the real surpluses may be, in fact, smaller than the findings of this research. As expected, the corn price seasonal variations reach their lowest values during the harvest period. Minas Gerais was the state with smaller seasonal variation, probably due to the fact that there is no corn deficit during the year.

ASSUNTO(S)

consumption mercado agrícola produção agrícola. agricultural commercialization comercialização agrícola consumo corn milho agricultural production. agricultural market

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