Estudo de modelos e condições iniciais da geração a priori de detritos espaciais e sua propagação orbital / Study of models and initial conditions of a priori generation of space debris and their orbital propagation

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

01/04/2011

RESUMO

Currently, it is estimated that there are hundreds of thousands of space debris, of various sizes, around the Earth. The space debris, also known as orbital debris, can remain in orbit with other bodies for a long time; and can cause risks of collision, including with space vehicles still in operation. In addition, there are risks of potential accidents by reentry of space debris in Earth s atmosphere. For this reason, the space debris are becoming an increasingly important field of study. This work aims to study models and initial conditions of a priori generation of space debris and their orbital propagation. To do this, it uses: 1) three models and initial conditions of the a priori generation of space debris (the deterministic model of explosion, the probabilistic model of fragmentation, and the deterministic and probabilistic model of collision); 2) two methods of orbital propagation of space debris (the analytical method of propagation with central gravitational field (keplerian) and the analytical method of propagating with non-central gravitational field (non-keplerian) which includes the effects of J2). In this study it was possible: 1) to observe and to interpret basic characteristics of the process of a priori generation of space debris and their orbital propagation; 2) to test simple analytical models for the a priori generation and orbital propagation of artificial space debris; 3) to apply the simple models in the case of the destruction of the Chinese weather satellite Fengyun - 1C, using the limited data available; 4) to compare the models and methods used. The results suggest that the used models qualitatively agree in center but not in scattering with the estimative of space debris distribution of the Chinese weather satellite Fengyun - 1C available in the literature, one minute and fifty seconds after its fragmentation. But the used models qualitatively agree in center and in scattering with the estimative of space debris distribution of Chinese weather satellite Fengyun - 1C available in the literature, two hours, thirty one minutes and fifty seconds after its fragmentation. This may be: 1) a result of deficiencies in modeling atmospheric drag effects used in the retrograde propagation and a posteriori generation of the first estimative, as explained by its author; and/or 2) due to one or more sequences of collisions, explosions, and fragmentations, where order and species import, as conjectured by uso Both causes will be investigated by us in the future.

ASSUNTO(S)

detritos espaciais geração propagação explosão fragmentação colisão space debris generation propagation explosion fragmentation and collision

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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