DETERMINANTES DO RISCO-PAÍS: UMA ANÁLISE EMPÍRICA DO BRASIL E DOS PAÍSES EMERGENTES / DETERMINANTS OF COUNTRY RISK : AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF BRAZIL AND THE EMERGENT COUNTRIES

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2004

RESUMO

The expressive flow of external capital directed to the emerging countries along 90 s has been the subject of much academic research developed in the area of international finance. Most of these studies attempt to empirically investigate how much country-especific and global factors constitute significant determinants of capital flow. Similarly, this kind of analysis has frequently taken place under the view of country risk. The only difference between the two analyses is that on the one side the major interest is around the movements of the capital flow, whereas on the other one it is around the price determination of sovereign bonds. Given the fact that an important part of capital flow along the 90 s was linked to external debt bonds of emerging market countries motivated by several reasons, this dissertation has the goal of studying the economic determinants of price variations based on three models: i) the first model analyzes the domestics determinants of country risk; ii) the second model has the same goal of the first one; however, the global risk aversion variable, which serves as proxy for the external risk component, is included to the group of explanatory variables; iii) the last model specifically focuses on the relationship between country risk and economic fundamentals. It is important that we understand as specific risk, the country risk deprived from the external components. Therefore, the following analysis will be applied to a sample of emerging markets and especifically to Brazil.

ASSUNTO(S)

fundamentos economicos global risk aversion country risk aversao ao risco global especific country risk economic fundamentals risco-pais risco-pais especifico

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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