Determinantes de longo prazo do produto e da produtividade total dos fatores da agropecuária brasileira: 1974-2005 / Product and total factor productivity determinants of Brazilian agriculture, in the long run: 1974-2005

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

The agricultural sector is one of the most important in the Brazilian economy. In addition to the dynamism responsible for important chain effects on other sectors activities, it also contributes to obtain expressive positive credit balances in the recently verified commercial balance, and consequently to generate foreign exchange credits, essential for maintaining macroeconomic stability. The guarantee for economic growth is based on the offer of good infrastructure conditions, responsible for the basic resources companies utilize in their productive processes. Besides, advancements in the provision of credit and human capital improvement also play relevant roles in the product and productivity of all the sectors of the economy, including agriculture. As such evolutions are observed, the answers provided by the sectors may act as increase in productivity, thus leading to increase in product and income. This study develops an analysis of the impacts caused by the most relevant variables on gross domestic product (GDP) and on total factor productivity (TFP) in domestic agriculture along the period 1974 and 2005. The following factors are considered determinants of economic growth: investments in transport, electric energy, research, irrigation, and agricultural storage infrastructures, besides in rural credit and agricultural worker education. The analysis is carried out by means of co-integration by the Johansen method, through the construction of bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In these, agricultural GDP is used as dependent variable and one of the determinants as the explicative variable. The same procedure is carried out for the TFP. Causality tests are then performed to identify how the variations are distributed in time in the variables considered, in an attempt to obtain evidences of the power the variables have in predicting changes. The results indicate that infrastructure investments have a positive impact on the agricultural product in the long run. Similarly, infrastructure investments keep positive relations with the sectors productivity, in the long run. Co-integration relations between rural credit and product and Brazilian agricultural productivity are not detected. Agricultural worker education is found to have a long term, positive, and statistically significant relation with the GDP and TPF of the agricultural sector. Moreover, the causality relations among the variables, in their majority, were detected in a unique direction, in which determinant variations precede changes in product and total factor productivity of the Brazilian agriculture.

ASSUNTO(S)

cointegração co-integration agricultural total factor productivity ptf agrícola economic growth crescimento e desenvolvimento economico crescimento econômico

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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