Credit decisions for large corporations / Decisões de crédito para grandes corporações

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

1998

RESUMO

This thesis is concerned with credit decision and not with financial statements analysis. More specifically, it is focused on the decision making process of the credit committee once the results of a competent anlysis is avalaible. The thesis is divided in four parts. In the first we present a review about credit, from its historical developments up to the applications of sophisticated portfolio management models and other modern techniques. The second part deals with the fundamentals of decision theory. We discuss ans analyze political and rational decision behaviors within organizations, and phenomenon such as escalation, groupthink and bandwagon. The third part presents, initially, the research problem, its methodology and the hypothesis to be tested. Subsequently, based on eighteen interviews with bank executives in Brazil, we describe the decision processes employed in the concession of credits to large corporations. We also analyze seven cases of unsuccessful credit decisions. Finally we present the statistical analysis of a survey by questionnaires from 54 Brazilian banks. In the fourth and last part we present the conclusions of this thesis. The key results in the importance of behavioral aspects in the credit decision processes: the statistical tests confirm that the rational behavior mitigates the bankruptcy index; while the political behavior, escalation and groupthink contribute to an increment of the banruptcy index.

ASSUNTO(S)

comportamento racional political behavior default comitê de decisão de crédito inadimplência credit rational behavior credit modeling bandwagon groupthink decisões de crédito escalation credit committee analysis crédito comportamento político modelagem em crédito análise de crédito credit decision escalation crédito bancário bandwagon credit banking groupthink

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