Computational simulation of the population dynamics of coffee leaf-miner, Leucoptera coffeella (GuÃrin-MÃneville, 1842) (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae), employing the sexual version of the Penna model. / SimulaÃÃo Computacional da dinÃmica populacional do bicho-mineiro do cafeeiro Leucoptera coffeella (GuÃrin-MÃneville, 1842)(Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae), utilizando a versÃo sexuada do Modelo Penna.

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

A number of computational simulations, employing the Penna model of biological aging in its sexual version, were worked out in an attempt to understand some aspects of the population dynamics of coffee leaf-miner, Leucoptera coffeella (GuÃrin-MÃneville, 1842) (Lepidoptera: Lyonetiidae). With this concern in mind, some changes were applied to the model in order to make it sensitive to biological characteristics of this particular insect species, in accordance with published experimental studies. Simulations with different laboratory conditions at different temperatures were carried on. Under these condition, the values for mean population size, intrinsic growth rate and survival curves were obtained. For the simulation of field conditions, the number of generations per year was determined taking in account mean temperature values ranging from 17oC e 23oC, as well as those from coffee-planting regions in the state of SÃo Paulo. Simulations of population fluctuations in larvae from the district of SÃo SebastiÃo do ParaÃso were also done, on the basis of data on temperatures and precipitation. The results support the contention that computer simulations are useful tools in understanding the dynamics of populations of this particular species and for the development of strategies for population control.

ASSUNTO(S)

dinÃmica populacional penna model estatistica coffee cafà modelo penna bicho-mineiro population dynamics coffee leaf-miner

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

Documentos Relacionados