Comparação de tecnicas de analise de risco aplicadas ao desenvolvimento de campos de petroleo / Comparison of tecniques for risk analysis applied to petroleum field development

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2005

RESUMO

Petroleum field decision-making process is associated to high risks due to geological, economic and technological uncertainties, and high investments, mainly in the appraisal and development phases of petroleum fields where it is necessary to model the recovery process with higher precision increasing the computational time. One way to speedup the process is by simplifying the process; some simplifications are discussed in this work: technique to quantify the risk (Monte Carlo and derivative tree), reduction of number of attributes, simplification of the treatment of attributes and simplification of the reservoir modeling process. Special emphasis is given to (1) comparison between Monte Carlo and derivative tree techniques and (2) development of fast models through experimental design and response surface method. Some works are being presented about these techniques but normally they show applications and no comparison among alternatives is presented. The objective of this work is to compare these techniques taking into account the reliability, precision of the results and speedup of the process. These techniques are applied to an offshore field and the results show that it is possible to reduce significantly the number of flow simulation maintaining the precision of the results. It is also possible to show that some simplifications can yield different results affecting the decision process

ASSUNTO(S)

metodo de monte carlo response surface (statistics) metodos de simulação derivative tree monte carlo method planejamento experimental superficies de resposta (estatistica) arvore de decisão design of experiments risco (economia) processo decisorio decision-making process risk simulation methods

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