Avaliação econômica e simulação em sistemas agroflorestais / Economic evaluation and simulation in agroforestry system

Sidney Araujo Cordeiro

The general objective of this work was to analyse the economic viability of agroforestry systems using simulation attempting to identify the benefits and the aspects to be improved in them. Specifically, the plan was to survey the production costs of agroforestry system projects; to effect the financial analysis of these systems; and to effect the analyses of the investment risk for the projects studied. To attain these objectives, this study was divided into three chapters. In chapter 1 a financial analysis was made by means of the evaluation methods of forestry projects, and for the risk analysis the technique of simulation of Monte Carlo was used, with the @Risk program. The agroforestry system tested is composed of eucalypt, corn and pupunha palm (Bactris gasipaes Kunth). The results indicate financial viability, with a net present value (VPL) of R$ 20,688.62/ha, return internal rate (TIR) of 44% per year and equivalent annual value (VAE) of R$ 2,619.85/ha/year. The risk analysis simulation indicated that the variables that affected the net present value (VPL) for the agroforestry systems, in its importance order (R), were: production of sawn timber, sawn timber sale price, interest rate, palm heart production, palm heart sale price, establishment cost, charcoal production and charcoal sale price. In chapter 2, the technical and economic viability of sylvopasture and agrosylvopasture systems was analysed, comparing them with a conventional project of eucalypt monoculture to produce charcoal, showing the income possibility offered to the producers, as well as the risk to invest in this type of activity, and thus, to produce subsidies for their establishment. A financial analysis was made by means of the evaluation methods of forestry projects. Based on the results obtained, it can be noted that the charcoal production and the agroforestry and agrosylvopasture systems are economically viable, once carried out in a correct manner, with the correct technical orientation, thus being good income alternatives, mainly in conditions of greater productivity. The agroforestry and sylvopasture systems obtained best financial indicators, and this is due to the value of the timber for sawmills, that aggregate a greater commercialization value, when compared to charcoal. An important contribution of the association is the early return of investments made in the productive association arrangement, due to the sale of the agricultural products. In chapter 3, data from the projects carried out in the Unidades de Experimentação Integração Lavoura Pecuária e Floresta (Units of Experimentation of Integration Agriculture Cattle and Forestry), in the years 2007/2008 were used, supplied by the Empresa de Assistência Técnica e Extensão Rural de Minas Gerais (EMATER-MG – Enterprise of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension of Minas Gerais), and by the Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV), with the objective of surveying the production costs of agroforestry systems established in the Zona da Mata – MG – Brazil (Forest Zone) and to effect simulations to improve these systems. A simulation was made based on the experimental unit of Senador Firmino. The production costs of this agroforestry system were compared to the eucalypt monoculture, as well as to the variations in income due to the planting spacing variation. The results indicated that the agroforestry system obtained a negative VPL, that is, it is not financially viable. It was concluded that eucalypt was planted at a 14 x 2m spacing, so, 357 saplings planted per hectare, it is economically viable, obtaining a VPL of R$ 6,319.96/ha. The eucalypt in monoculture had better results, being the best income project. As the spacing is increased between the eucalypt trees, there is an increase of area available for corn planting and cattle raising. But as proved by the results, this gain in area does not offer the same financial return if planted with trees.

Avaliação econômica e simulação em sistemas agroflorestais / Economic evaluation and simulation in agroforestry system

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