A Model of Social Distancing for Interacting Age-Distributed Multi-Populations: An Analysis of Students’ In-Person Return to Schools

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

Trends in Computational and Applied Mathematics

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2022

RESUMO

ABSTRACT Because of the current scenario of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic in Brazil, whose vaccination campaign is in its initial stage, government authorities have pointed towards the complete reopening of the economy. And recently, for the in-personal return of classroom teaching in schools. Given the family relationship, one of the questions that remains without an answer is: what are the consequences of the schools’ reopening on the dissemination of COVID-19? The purpose of this work is to analyze a variant of the compartmental SIRD (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Social Distancing) model in a structured, interacting age population representing six age groups, from the basic education age to the elderly. We present a complete analysis of the well-posedness of the proposed mathematical model. We discuss distinct disease spreading scenarios based on observations of the mathematical behavior of the proposed dynamics. Moreover, we present the existence of the stationary points in terms of the parameters of the model and the number of infected age groups. Finally, we present different numerical simulations of the predicted scenarios by the model. Those numerical realizations support the conclusion that an early school reopening, resulting in the decreasing social isolation of young people, causes the infection curve to grow considerably, even for other age groups.

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