Using ecological niche models to predict the impact of global climate change on the geographical distribution and productivity of Euterpe oleracea Mart. (Arecaceae) in the Amazon

ABSTRACT We assess the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution and productivity of Euterpe oleracea (Arecaceae), commonly called açaí. To construct the ecological niche model of E. oleracea, we used 95 points of occurrence, five bioclimatic variables in current and future climate scenarios and Maxent software. The Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) was used to rank the ability of the models (considering ecological, socioeconomic and spatial variables) to explain the variation in productivity of E. oleracea among 200 municipalities. The maps showed that regions with higher envi...