INTRODUCING A CAUSAL PAR( p ) MODEL TO EVALUATE THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIABLES IN RESERVOIR INFLOWS: A BRAZILIAN CASE

ABSTRACT The Brazilian electricity energy matrix is essentially formed by hydraulic sources which currently account for 70% of the installed capacity. One of the most important characteristics of a generation system with hydro predominance is the strong dependence on the inflow regimes. Nowadays, the Brazilian power sector uses the PAR(p) model to generate scenarios for hydrological inflows. This approach does not consider any exogenous information that may affect hydrological regimes. The main objective of this paper is to infer on the influence of climatic events in water inflows as a way to...