Climate Change Influencing the Potential Distribution of a Brazilian Savanna Indicator Species

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to model the potential effect of future climate change on the distribution of a tree species indicator of Cerrado. For the modeling, we used 488 occurrence points of the species and also bioclimatic variables corresponding to 2050 and 2070, for the more optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. All generated models were classified as consistent, getting an area under curve higher than 0.90. The current modeling of Connarus suberosus showed that 88% of the area with a high probability of species occurrence is inside the Cerrado domain. Future projections sug...