Forecast Models
Mostrando 25-36 de 159 artigos, teses e dissertações.
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25. Avaliando o Forecast Content dos Modelos Auto-regressivos Para arrecadaÃÃo de ICMS do Setor ElÃtrico do Estado do Cearà / Evaluating the Forecast Content of autoregressive models for collection of ICMS Power Sector in CearÃ
Neste ensaio investiga-se a perda de conteÃdo dos modelos de previsÃo autoregressivos, na medida em que se alarga o horizonte temporal no qual a variÃvel à estimada. O conteÃdo à medido pela reduÃÃo relativa do erro quadrado mÃdio que o modelo proporciona em comparaÃÃo ao processo simplificado de utilizar a mÃdia incondicional da sÃrie temporal.
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 25/02/2011
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26. Logit models for the probability of winning football games
Two ordinal logit models are applied to fit the results of matches in the Brazilian football championship. As explanatory variables are employed measures of previous performance of the teamsalong all preceding games, along recent games and when playing at home and as a visitor. The results of the models adjustment are employed in simulations performed to for
Pesquisa Operacional. Publicado em: 2011-12
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27. Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia
Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system f
Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Publicado em: 2011-08
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28. A systematic approach to construct credit risk forecast models
Due to the recent growth in the consumer credit market and the consequent increase in default indices, companies are seeking to improve their credit analysis by incorporating objective procedures. Multivariate techniques have been used as an alternative to construct quantitative models for credit forecast. These techniques are based on consumer profile data
Pesquisa Operacional. Publicado em: 2011-04
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29. Estimating total claim size in the auto insurance industry: a comparison between tweedie and zero-adjusted inverse gaussian distribution
The objective of this article is to estimate insurance claims from an auto dataset using the Tweedie and zeroadjusted inverse Gaussian (ZAIG) methods. We identify factors that influence claim size and probability, and compare the results of these methods which both forecast outcomes accurately. Vehicle characteristics like territory, age, origin and type dis
BAR - Brazilian Administration Review. Publicado em: 2011-03
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30. Computer simulation of the coffee leaf miner using sexual Penna aging model.
Forecast models based on climatic conditions are of great interest in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs. The success of these models depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of the temperature effect on the pests? population dynamics. In this direction, a computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of the coffee leaf miner, L. coff
PHYSICA A. Publicado em: 2011
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31. Computer simulation of the coffee leaf miner using sexual Penna aging model.
Forecast models based on climatic conditions are of great interest in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) programs. The success of these models depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of the temperature effect on the pests? population dynamics. In this direction, a computer simulation was made for the population dynamics of the coffee leaf miner, L. coff
PHYSICA A. Publicado em: 2011
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32. Computer simulation applied to the biological control of the insect aphis gossypii for the parasitoid Lysiphlebus testaceipes.
In integrated pest management (IPM), biological control is one of the possible options for the prevention or remediation of an unacceptable pest activity or damage. The success of forecast models in IPM depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of temperature effect over pests and its natural enemies. In this work, we simulated the effects of parasitism
In.: ECOLOGICAL MODELLING. Publicado em: 2011
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33. Computer simulation applied to the biological control of the insect aphis gossypii for the parasitoid Lysiphlebus testaceipes.
In integrated pest management (IPM), biological control is one of the possible options for the prevention or remediation of an unacceptable pest activity or damage. The success of forecast models in IPM depends, among other factors, on the knowledge of temperature effect over pests and its natural enemies. In this work, we simulated the effects of parasitism
In.: ECOLOGICAL MODELLING. Publicado em: 2011
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34. Dynamic load-balancing : a new strategy for weather forecast models
Weather forecasting models are computationally intensive applications and traditionally they are executed in parallel machines. However, some issues prevent these models from fully exploiting the available computing power. One of such issues is load imbalance, i.e., the uneven distribution of load across the processors of the parallel machine. Since weather
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 2011
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35. Análise numérico-experimental de lajes nervuradas sujeitas a cargas estáticas de serviço
Waffle slabs are, nowadays, a demand for structural designers, as a consequence of architectural design evolution and new building management concepts, in spite of its laborious numerical modeling. Therefore, it becomes necessary to know more about their structural behavior and to improve the theoretical models used for simulating these slabs. The objective
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 2011
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36. An iterative approach for generating statistically realistic populations of households.
Background. Many different simulation frameworks, in different topics, need to treat realistic datasets to initialize and calibrate the system. A precise reproduction of initial states is extremely important to obtain reliable forecast from the model. Methodology/Principal Findings. This paper proposes an algorithm to create an artificial population where in
PLoS ONE. Publicado em: 2011