Decision Under Uncertainty
Mostrando 13-24 de 38 artigos, teses e dissertações.
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13. Offshore platform shutdown using critical chain method. / Programação de parada de plataforma marítima utilizando o método da corrente crítica.
The present study discusses the adequacy of the Critical Chain Project Management Method (CCPM) - also known as the Critical Chain Method - for scheduling projects involving shutdowns on oil platforms, as such projects involve decision-making processes under risk conditions. The CCPM is based on the Theory of Constraints and aims at providing more precise an
Publicado em: 2009
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14. Decisões de investimento em condições de incerteza: uma abordagem com opções reais equivalentes / Investment decisions under uncertainty conditions: a view upon equivalent real options
Considering the increasing level of competition of many markets, companies that take wrong decision choices for their businesses may compromise its performances. Therefore, in order to reach better performance than its competitors, the decisions should not be based on intuition and unnecessary losses become unacceptable. Under the financial scope, the approp
Publicado em: 2008
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15. Methodology of production strategy optimization based on genetic algorithms / Metodologia de otimização probabilistica de estrategias de produção baseada em algoritmos geneticos
High levels of uncertainty and associated risks in the exploration and production of some oil fields suggest the use of probabilistic optimized production strategies. Therefore, an appropriate production strategy should be chosen considering various geological and economic scenarios. In this work, a new approach for the optimization is proposed where the pro
Publicado em: 2008
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16. Perfil dos atributos do sistema orçamentário sob a perspectiva contingencial: uma abordagem multivariada / Profile of attributes of the system budget from the perspective contingencial: a multivariate approach
The budgetary system is a relevant accounting tool to the decision-making within the high complex context of the contemporary reality, since it represents a prospect of the business vision, translating its strategy and offering conduct guidance. The budgetary systems composition and the reasons for its use (as a form of targets communication, performance eva
Publicado em: 2008
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17. O valor da opÃÃo de preservaÃÃo do Parque dos Manguezais
Neste trabalho a Teoria das OpÃÃes Reais foi utilizada para analisar se uma parte do Parque dos Manguezais, maior Ãrea de manguezal urbano do mundo, deve ou nÃo ser utilizada para construÃÃo de uma rodovia. Foi demonstrado que a anÃlise do investimento tradicional baseada no fluxo de caixa descontado subestima o valor do recurso natural conduzindo a d
Publicado em: 2007
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18. Monitoração ambiental no setor de biotecnologia: comportamento de busca e uso de informação em empresas de micro e pequeno portes de Minas Gerais
This study investigates how the managers of small and medium-size biotechnology companies, in Belo Horizonte/Minas Gerais, search and use the information concerning the companies external environment. It answers the following research questions: assuming that organizations must interact with the external environment to develop and keep its competitiveness, w
Publicado em: 2007
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19. Cascatas de incertezas, impactos climáticos perigosos e negociações internacionais sobre mudança de clima global - um modelo exploratório / Cascatas de Incertezas, Impactos Climáticos Perigosos e Negociações Internacionais sobre Mudança de Clima Global : Um Modelo Exploratório
The problem of the global climate change only can to be solved through a long term process of international political coordination which the principal actors are the governments of the National States. The Kyoto Protocol is the first international agreement to control the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the others rounds of negotiations will happen throu
IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia. Publicado em: 19/06/2006
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20. ESTRATÉGIA DE CONTRATAÇÃO DAS DISTRIBUIDORAS EM LEILÕES DE ENERGIA SOB INCERTEZA NA DEMANDA / CONTRACTING STRATEGIES IN ENERGY AUCTIONS FOR DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY
The objective of this work is to analyze the new regulatory framework of the Brazilian electric sector. In this sense, it was developed a computational tool in order to elaborate strategies for the distribution companies (DISCOs) in the energy auctions instituted by the new regulation. The computational tool was used to simulate the contracts acquisition pro
Publicado em: 2006
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21. Compact representations of Markov decision processes and their application to printer management. / Representações compactas para processos de decisão de Markov e sua aplicação na adminsitração de impressoras.
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are an important tool for planning and optimization in environments under uncertainty. The specification and computational representation of the probability distributions underlying MDPs are central difficulties for their application. This work proposes two strategies for representation of probabilities in a compact and effic
Publicado em: 2006
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22. HYDROELETRIC GENERATION ASSET VALUATION BY REAL OPTIONS IN DICRETE TIME / AVALIAÇÃO DE ATIVOS DE GERAÇÃO HIDRELÉTRICA ATRAVÉS DA TEORIA DE OPÇÕES REAIS EM TEMPO DISCRETO
The Brazilian electric sector comes suffering strong structural changes, whose main objective is to create a competitive to allow the sector to grow not more for state investments, but for the private capital. The Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) starts to offer a multiplicity of chances of investments, generated mainly for the recent implantat
Publicado em: 2006
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23. Research and intervention trajectories in Biological Conservation: evaluating projects funded by National Environmental Fund / A trajetória da pesquisa e da intervenção em Biologia da Conservação: avaliação de projetos financiados pelo Fundo Nacional do Meio Ambiente
The research proposal is to evaluate the research and intervention projects funded by the National Environmental Fund, between 1990 and 2003. Usually, evaluation research concern is on changing socioeconomic projects, but here it is used to understand the research and intervention projects under environmental science. The empirical reference was restricted t
Publicado em: 2006
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24. OPÇÕES REAIS HÍBRIDAS COM APLICAÇÕES EM PETRÓLEO / HYBRID REAL OPTIONS WITH PETROLEUM APPLICATIONS
This methodological and normative thesis extends the modern economic valuation theory of projects under uncertainty, known as real options theory, from the point of view of an oil company that optimizes the allocation of investment and resources. The real options theory is combined with other theories - so the name hybrid real options - in order to perform a
Publicado em: 2005