Zoneamento edafoclimático e ambiental para a cana-de-açúcar e as implicações das mudanças climáticas no estado do Tocantins / Environmental and edapho-climatic zoning for sugarcane and climatic changes implications for Tocantins State

AUTOR(ES)

Erich Collicchio

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

Due to the increase of ethanol demand, the tendency to expansion of the complex sugarcane industry in the Center-North region requires an elaboration of agroclimatic aptitude for sugarcane culture, especially in Tocantins State. The climatic and edaphic informations favor the determination of most suitable areas for cultivation and mechanization. On the other hands, according to IPCC (2007) it may occur an elevation of the climatic risk in the productive regions due to the increase of air temperature. This study aimed to elaborate the environmental and edapho-climatic zoning for sugarcane using the current climate regime, and identify regions of potential productivity in Tocantins State. Furthermore, it was also aimed to simulate the climate change impacts over the agroclimatic sugarcane zoning in Tocantins considering data generated by GFDL and HadCM3 and scenarios of B1 e A1B emissions for the period between 2021 and 2050. Results showed that for both the current climatic conditions and the projected models there is no thermal restrictions for cane development and to obtain good productivity it will be necessary to irrigate the crops during the drought periods. Although the predominance of restrict aptitude classes it was noticed the existence of a potential for sugarcane production. Three potential regions (South, Southeast and Central regions) were identified with favorable edapho-climatic conditions and with suitable infrastructure for production. The climate changes analyzed indicated that Tocantins State will go through hidric restrictions due to the reduction of areas considered climatically apt and marginal and increase of the restrict areas for sugarcane cultivation without irrigation regime.

ASSUNTO(S)

sugarcane agroclimatology tocantins water balance mudanças climáticas zoneamento. zoning. tocantins meio ambiente environment balanço hídrico biofuels climate change agroclimatologia cana-de-açúcar biocombustíveis

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