Zoneamento ecológico de Anastrepha fraterculus e Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae) em dois cenários climáticos no Brasil / Ecological zoning for Anastrepha fraterculus and Ceratitis capitata (Diptera, Tephritidae) in two climatic scenarios in Brazil

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

Exploratory ecological zoning for the South American fruit fly, Anastrepha fraterculus, and the medfly, Ceratitis capitata, were established based on data of 497 meteorological stations throughout Brazil, considering recent (1961 - 1990) and future climate forecast by IPPC (2080, A2 scenario). Climograms were used to estimate the South American fruit fly and medfly development indexes (Id) based on their thermal and soil moisture requirements. The development index was divided into five classes and spacialized by using the SPRING 4.1.1 geographical information system. Based on development index the Southwest and South regions were the most suitable for Anastrepha fraterculus in the recent climate. These regions have average monthly temperatures within the mesothermic range of A. fraterculus development and a short period of drought, while the unfavorable localities were situated in the semi-arid of the Northwest region, where temperatures are always above the threshold temperature of development and soil moisture are unsuitable for the pupa stage. For the increase of temperature due to global warming foreseen for 2080 (scenario A2), the North, Northwest and Center-West regions will become entirely unsuitable for the South American fruit fly development. Temperatures within the mesothermic range of development will still be available in part of Southwest region and in the South region, even with the increase of the temperature. However, the hydric conditions will be unfavorable for most of the year, and the upper temperature threshold will be exceeded in warmer months. For Ceratitis capitata, the recent climate of the North and Northwest regions were unsuitable for its development due to the high temperatures year-round. In the Northwest region, the hydric conditions will be favourable for a short period of the year. The low rainfall from March to August will make part of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás unfavorable for medfly development in the Center-West region. In the Southwest region, temperature and hydric conditions from September to March are inadequate for medfly development. In the South region, conditions will be unfavorable to medfly development only during the months of May and June, when low temperatures occur. In the prediction for 2080, due to the temperature increase, only Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul states will have adequate climatic conditions to allow for C. capitata development. Therefore, the foreseen climate changes will be more unfavorable for the development of C. capitata (exotic species) than A. fraterculus (native species).

ASSUNTO(S)

gis. south american fruit fly medfly aquecimento global mosca-das-frutas mosca-do-mediterrâneo tephritidae climatic changes global warming sistema de informação geográfica. mudança climática

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