Waiting periods, instructive signals and positional information
AUTOR(ES)
Basler, Konrad
FONTE
Oxford University Press
RESUMO
Two former biologists play at dice. In the center of the table there are several banknotes from a prize they had won a few years before they dropped out of science. The rule of the game is that each player gets a banknote whenever he correctly predicts how many throws it will take after throwing a 6 to throw the next 6. One of the two players, a former theoretical biologist, remembers that the frequency of throwing a 6 is one in six, so he always foretells that the waiting period will be 6. The other player's cause for failing in science was opposite: he believed in superstitions. As his lucky number is three, he guesses after each 6 that the next 6 will occur three throws later. Which of the two fellows will recover more from the prize money? And is there a waiting period that could be predicted that would make more money?
ACESSO AO ARTIGO
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