Valuation of the Kuo Model for the forecasting of the rain and thunderstorm in the South region of Brazil: cases studies / Avaliação do modelo de Kuo para a previsão de chuvas e tempestades na região Sul do Brasil: Estudo de casos

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2006

RESUMO

The purpose of this research work was to make the quality verification of the results assumed by BRAMS mesoscale model 3.2 model. According to the forecasting of convective precipitation occurrence and/or thunderstorm formation, utilizing the parametrization of Kuo Type humidity convergence. On this way, these results were compared to the data observed on the surface of some station from RS and SC and with the satellite images in the region of GOES 8 and GOES 12 infrared radioactive spectrum. Three periods were selected for the development of this study in which the thunderstorm and precipitation occurrences were registered in case that the first and the third on were verified for Pelotas region (RS) and the second for the coastal region from RS and SC. Besides the comparisons described above, the results developed for the first case were different from the others and confronted to the simulated data with another mesoscale model (hydrostatic) analysed by Almeida (2001) who also utilized the parametrization of Kuo Type cumulus convection. In the numerical evaluation, it was possible to verify that the volumes of convective precipitation were subestimated by BRAMS model in the three cases. However, it presented efficiency qualitatively in the thunderstorm simulation for the south region of Brazil.

ASSUNTO(S)

região sul modelo brams modelagem numérica brasil previsão de chuvas meteorologia modelo de kuo previsão de tempestades meteorologia precipitação pluvial

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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