Valor da informação incorporando flexibilidade operacional / Value of information incorporating operational flexibility

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2010

RESUMO

At the beginning of field development, many questions regarding the reservoir structural model still remain and it is necessary to mitigate this uncertainty and associated risk before the final field development plan proposition. Mitigation of risks and uncertainties can be done in two ways: through additional information acquisition and operational flexibility, but both have limitations. Information has value within a project up to the point where the benefits obtained do not outweigh its acquisition cost. Flexibility may be not viable due to the impossibility of practical changes in the production strategies or in the facilities when these are already in operation. The value of information (VOl) and value of flexibility (VOF) are resources capable of quantifying the relevance of information and flexibilities in reducing project risk, as demonstrated by the methodology proposed by Xavier (2004). However, this methodology considers fixed production strategies and a high number of dry wells, which significantly impact the value of information, overestimating it. Thus, the objective of this project is to improve this methodology through the implementation of an assisted automated process for strategy selection and optimization, incorporating operational flexibility to the project by reducing the number of dry wells and through a more accurate dimensioning of the production strategies and facilities. The methodology is applied to two cases: the first, where the only uncertain attribute is the structural model, aimed the validation of the automated methodology; the second case has four uncertain attributes and the methodology was applied in a more complete way. The results indicate that, in the initial phase of development, the more accurate design of the production strategies and facilities has a direct impact on the expected monetary value of the project, which is reflected in the VOl and in the risk analysis, increasing the accuracy and the value of these tools in projects with a high degree of associated uncertainty

ASSUNTO(S)

informação avaliação de riscos riscos engenharia de petróleo information risk assessment risks petroleum engineering

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