VALIDATION OF THE PROJECT VALUATION CRITERION USING THE REAL OPTIONS THEORY: BRAZILIAN OIL FIELDS E&P, CONSIDERING PRICES AS GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION / VALIDAÇÃO DO CRITÉRIO DE AVALIAÇÃO DE PROJETOS UTILIZANDO A TEORIA DAS OPÇÕES REAIS: E &P DE CAMPOS DE PETRÓLEO NACIONAIS, SUPONDO PREÇOS COMO MOVIMENTO GEOMÉTRICO BROWNIANO

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2003

RESUMO

Financial researchers have discussed a lot about the theoretical advantages of including the managerial flexibility and the financial options analogy in projects valuation criteria. Plenty of authors criticize the currently used investment analysis methods, mainly represented by the discounted cash flow, supported by the notion that the managers should use techniques that better reflect the available flexibility to take their decisions. In this sense, the present dissertation has the objective of validating the suggested advantages of using the Real Options theory through a back-testing focused on oil fields with Brazilian oil industry representative characteristics. Those tests will be carried out for the 1970-1990 period, considering the economic uncertainty and excluding the technical uncertainties. The investment decisions model developed in Excel and VBA (Visual Basic for Applications) contemplates the options of waiting till two years and of choosing among three exploitation intensities. The Geometric Brownian Motion was assumed as the stochastic process to represent the real oil prices time evolution, and its volatility was varied to generate a sensibility analysis. Finally it is worthy to state that the results shall not be accepted as definitive, and just as a foundation to future studies on the empirical research line of verifying and validating the theoretical advantages of the Real Options with regard to others currently used criteria.

ASSUNTO(S)

real options avaliacao de projetos campos de petroleo movimento geometrico browniano geometric brownian motion opcoes reais projects valuation investimento sob incerteza oil fields investment under uncertaunty

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