Um estudo sobre o comercio exterior de bens de capital e algumas de suas relações com o desenvolvimento do ramo industrial no Brasil (1974-1989) / A study on the capital goods foreign trade and some of its relations with the development of industrial sector in Brazil (1974-1989)

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

In the 1980s and 1990s, liberal narratives about the Brazilian economic development since the 1930s tried to compare it, together with other Latin American countries, the open model of development to foreign trade in East and Southeast Asia. According to the liberal interpretation, the protection model of the internal market to substitute imports would have led the Brazilian s enterprises to a precarious development and to an inability to export products manufactured on a large scale. This thesis selects the industry typically more intensive in technology, the capital goods. It aims to analyze the foreign trade sector to assess the validity of the historically liberal interpretation in the period 1974-1989. In the light of historical research and a balance of liberal theories and non-liberals on the relationship between economic development and foreign trade, the dissertation shows that in the 1970s, there was a simultaneous expansion of domestic market and exports of capital goods, which was interrupted by the macroeconomic crisis of the 1980s. This expansion simultaneously rejects the distinction between liberal model of imports substitution and exports substitution model, and it is explained by the cumulative process of acquisition of learning and economies of scale that accompanies the development of industries in emerging economies with rapid growth of the internal market, also sharply increasing its external competitiveness. In the 1980s, the trend of low growth and instability caused by foreign debt crisis led to a clear disadvantage in the industry of capital goods for other industries: how they reduced investments after the crisis, the recovery of their demand due outbreaks of domestic consumption and / or exports have not resulted into a recovery of the capital goods sector. Thus, while several industries were able to take advantage from the economic policy incentives and high profitability in the protected domestic market, to offer competitive prices in the foreign market and support the expansion of exports, the capital goods sector (particularly machinery and equipment) was not likely successful. It suffered a drop in demand from the private investment, particularly with the steep reduction in investment by state enterprises, being unable to compensate for the loss of revenue with an increase in domestic exports, neither to support the exporter drive in domestic revenue. The historical evidence supports the conclusion that, in view of the need to support international competitiveness in a cumulative process of exploitation of economies of scale and learning, the dynamism of the domestic market tends to be a condition, not an obstacle to exporting vibrant trade in industry in general, but particularly in the capital goods sector. Unlike the theories proposed by liberals, it was not the rapid expansion of a protected domestic market, but the end of its rapid expansion, that restricted the expansion of exports in more technologically dynamic sectors and continuously improvement of the national export tariff

ASSUNTO(S)

economic development comércio exterior desenvolovimento economico bens de capital trade capital goods

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