Transmission of prices and volatility in the marketing of pork / Transmissão de preços e da volatilidade na comercialização da carne suína

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2009

RESUMO

The pork chain, despite showing significant technical improvement and competitiveness, is still one of the most volatile sectors of Brazilian agribusiness, and marketing and price fluctuation is one of the main barriers for its development. Accordingly, the present study aimed to analyze the price ratios and volatility among production agents and major meat markets. To do this, the study was based on a price transmission model between levels of market leadership with the wholesale price and the model of price integration between markets, using Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (M-GARCH) as the analyzing method. Based on these multivariate models of time series, the causality tests were carried out and the contemporary relationship matrices were obtained, the decompositions of forecast error variance, the impulse- response functions and the possible spread of instability by conditional volatility of the price series of pork was analyzed. Thus, we analyzed the formation of pork prices and volatility levels of the market in the states of Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo and between these regions and meat prices in the international market. It was found that the production price was an important transmitter of changes in market prices of Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais and that bulk prices had a greater influence in the prices of meat in the Sao Paulo market. It was also noted that meat prices were more unstable at the producer level in Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais, and the wholesale level, in Sao Paulo. When analyzing the transmission of prices between locations, prices in Santa Catarina had the greatest impact on the dynamics of price series in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo with prices from Santa Catarina and the international market showing more instability, although transmission of volatility between locations was not detected. Additionally, there were higher levels of variability in the prices of pork in periods with cases of FMD. Thus, it is expected that the public and private policies aimed to contribute to the harmonization and development of the pork farmers are especially on the sources of instability in the sector, as the occurrence of livestock diseases, the stability of the corn market and soybeans, the expansion of domestic consumption of meat and the diversification of foreign market importers of the product. The results show that the intervention actions, when carried out on prices, should occur at price levels received by producers in Santa Catarina and Minas Gerais, and levels of wholesale prices in Sao Paulo, since the prices in those segments proved to be influential on other links in the chain. Additionally, the actions will have better results when interventions occur in the Santa Catarina market, since this region was presented as the main national market prices determiner.Thus, there will be a more dynamic flow of information between agents, with a reduction in public and private spending, which will make the activity more attractive. In this sense, this work contributes to a better understanding of the formation of prices of pork and its instability and formation of more effective agricultural policies.

ASSUNTO(S)

formação de preço causalidade segmentos de mercado economia agraria pricing causality market segments

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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