TIME SERIES APPLIED TO OPERATION PLANNING OF THE NATIONAL INTERCONNECTED ELECTRIC SYSTEM / SÉRIES TEMPORAIS APLICADAS AO PLANEJAMENTO DA OPERAÇÃO DO SISTEMA INTERLIGADO NACIONAL - SIN

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2008

RESUMO

The natural vocation of Brazil for the hydroelectricity made the National Interconnected Electric System ¿ NIS to be developed with strong predominance of hydroelectric origin creation. However, choosing for a hydroelectricity base you have to deal with significant uncertainness associated to the rivers inflows and all hydrographical basins of the country. Therefore, the production structure of Brazilian hydroelectric energy was created to minimize the risks associated to the random behavior of inflows. To contemplate the inflows stochasticity in the operation planning of NIS, the National Operator of the Electrical System - ONS uses a chain of models that contains a model of inflows forecasting for the short term, and a model to generate scenarios of inflows. These models provide inputs for the optimizations model can establish the strategies and policies for the operation of medium and short term, contemplating the volatility of inputs. This dissertation describes the time series processes used in the model of inflows forecasting for the short term and in the models to generate scenarios of inflows for the medium and short term. Moreover, this paper presents a study of cases of Operation Planning of the NIS that analyze the coupling made between the models for optimization of medium and short term through the hydrological scenarios for medium and short term. By this analysis, is possible realize how the coupling between the models of optimization can impact the strategies and policies for the operation of medium and short term.

ASSUNTO(S)

outflow forecast previsao de vazao time series series temporais

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