The ability of EVA® to predict future earnings: an empirical study in the Brazilian public companies / A capacidade do EVA® para predição de lucros futuros: um estudo empírico nas empresas de capital aberto do Brasil

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

There has been increased recognition over the last decade of the measures of management of value. Among these, one that has received the great attention either on the academic field or in the companies in general is the Economic Value Added (EVA®). A lot has been argued about this measure, its defenders affirm that it is one measure of performance better than the traditional accounting measures. In these perspective, a lot of researches have been done, verifying the relation between the EVA® and the stock returns, where the results change between one relation superior of these measures and the stock returns in comparison with the usual accounting measures and a weak relationship or absence of relation between these variables. In a different approach, Machuga, Pfeiffer Jr. and Verma (2002) realize a study on the North America market to verify the ability of EVA® in the prediction of future earnings. Applying the methodology of this study, this research had as goal to verify empirically if the EVA® supplies incremental information to predict future earnings of the Brazilian public companies. After, in the methodology, some multiple linear regression models were applied on the period of 1998 to 2006 to test the proposition that EVA® supplies information incrementally useful to predict one-year-ahead earnings of the Brazilian public companies. The annual cross-section regressions were applied and verified the statistic significance of the average coefficients. With the gotten results, one cannot confirm the incremental utility of EVA® in the future earnings prediction. In the sequence, a test of the incremental value of the inclusion of the information EVA® on the model of prediction was realized, it being that news regressions were applied without the variables EVA® and gotten the new average coefficients, after that, two predictions of earnings was effected, one using the mean values with and the other without the EVA® information. By the comparison of the predicted values with the actual earnings and checking its respective differences, one got the average forecast errors. It was observed that the average forecast errors had been presented high in function of the high dispersion of the variables of the research. It was founded too that the average forecast errors were lower when was included the information of EVA®, indicating the incremental utility of this measure on the prediction of future earnings, however, these results must be interpreted as indicative and not as conclusive, since the coefficients of the variables, in its majority, did not show statistically significant.

ASSUNTO(S)

valor econômico agregado future earnings predição de lucros earnings prediction lucros futuros economic value added

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