Sustainability of the U.S. Federal deficit: an updated analysis

AUTOR(ES)

Andrà Teixeira de Carvalho

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

This dissertation aims at checking the solvency of the U.S. public debt, using quarterly data ranging from 1947:1 to 2005:4. The long-term equilibrium between receipts and expenditures was evaluated using the Johansen Cointegration Test, and causality and exogeneity test were done to the two series. The dissertation shows that the debt is solvent; finding that one dollar in expenditures causes receipts to increase in one dollar and forty cents. Moreover, it was found that receipts do not Granger causes expenditures and that expenditures is not weakly exogenous.

ASSUNTO(S)

cointegraÃÃo cointegration exogeneity granger causality var exogeneidade causalidade de granger economia internacional dÃvida pÃblica norte-americana u.s. federal debt

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