Spatio-temporal hierarchical modelling of the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari) dispersion in colombia. / Modelagem da distribuição espaço-temporal da broca do café (Hypothenemus hampaei Ferrari) em uma cultura da região central colombiana.

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2002

RESUMO

Study of agricultural pests distribution in space and time provides important information about the species dispersion mechanisms and its interaction with environmental factors. It also helps the development of sampling plans, the integrated pest management and planning of experiments. The aim of this work was to compare several hierarchical models in modelling the spatio-temporal variation of the coffee berry borer infestation in order to produce risk maps. Different combinations of random effects representing spatially structured and unstructured variability were used, with different prior distributions for the parameters and hyperparameters. Also different neighbourhood schemes were used to represent the spatial correlation of the data. The model fitting was done using MCMC methods and deviance and squared loss function were used for the comparison between models. The results are presented as a sequence of risk maps.

ASSUNTO(S)

café brocas (insetos nocivos) estatísticas espaciais. coffee berry borer (hypothenemus hampei ferrari) spatial statistics.

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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