Spatio-temporal dynamics of populations of the citrus leprosis pathossystem under natural epidemic conditions / Dinâmica espaço-temporal de populações do patossistema leprose dos citros em condições naturais de epidemia

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

Citrus leprosis, caused by Citrus leprosis virus (CiLV), is a disease endemic to the producing regions of the state of São Paulo, where it has a heavy impact on production. The virus is transmitted exclusively by the Brevipalpus phoenicis mite and disease control measures aim to reduce the vector population mainly by acaricide applications. Although the disease control is based on mite population samplings, there are no long-term studies available that correlate the vector population with the disease incidence. The objective of this study was to characterize temporal and spatial growth patterns of the mite, disease distribution and the association between the two populations. The mite population and citrus leprosis symptoms were monitored for three years under natural epidemic conditions, in a sweet orange stand of the variety Valencia, grafted unto Citrus limonia Osbeck. The B. phoenicis population presented fluctuations, although with increasing peaks along the study period. The oscillation density depended more on the tree phenology than on climate conditions. The disease incidence increased slowly under a logistic model. Although citrus leprosis is not systemic, it has a polietic performance and builds up inoculum year after year. The infection of branches is the main cause of the cumulative nature of the disease. The disease probability was modeled by a covariable constructed to capture information of the trees surroundings in the past, concerning mite incidence and the disease itself. There was no correlation between the disease level in one evaluation and the mite quantity in earlier evaluations, in antecedent periods of up to 70 days. The spatial pattern of trees with symptoms was highly aggregated and did not correspond to the spatial distribution of miteinfested trees, which was weakly aggregated. The probability of tree infestation and infection was modeled as dependent of the state of the surrounding trees through autologistic models. The probability of mite infestation of a tree does not depend on whether the neighbor trees host the pest or not, but on whether the neighbor trees are diseased at that moment. A vector subpopulation is inserted in the B. phoenicis population. The spatial pattern of tree incidence with visible symptoms probably reflects the infestation pattern by CiLV-contaminated mites. Sampling for decision taking regarding disease control must be based on the presence of symptoms as well as of mites, rather than on the mite population only.

ASSUNTO(S)

brevipalpus phoenicis incidence spatial pattern leprose incidência temporal progress citrus leprosis virus epidemiologia citricultura citrus sinensis Ácaros distribuição espacial

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